Update, September 30th: Ryan Refuses To Explain Tax Math
Below is the current state of the race with swing states in grey.
If the election were held today, Romney doesn’t win a single swing state.
Not even NC or Virginia according to the latest polls from RealClearPolitics.
Update, September 30th: The above map still holds true. Romney doesn’t win a single swing state.
Update, October 3rd: North Carolina goes in the Romney column. The FiveThirtyEight blog puts Obama’s chances of winning to 84.7% come Nov. 6, but if the election were held today, Romney only has a 2.7% chance of winning. (In science, a probability of 1 in 100 is considered a virtual impossibility.)
Updates, October 10th: Florida and Colorado go for Romney. It usually takes a week for the polls to come in, so these polls are truly in touch with Romney’s debate performance. For the first time, Obama’s electoral victory drops under 300 votes. Romney’s chance of victory goes up from 2% to 33% on FiveThirtyEight — Don’t worry. this is Romney’s peak unless the President botches the other debates and says something unexcusable.
Update, October 19th: Virginia goes squarely in the Romney column. 281-257
Update, October 20th: NH is now polling for Romney. 277-261 This is the wrong trajectory for the Obama campaign.
Update, October 22nd: NH is back for Obama. 281-257
Update, October 27th: Nevada and Iowa and Colorado are back for Obama. 290-248
Update, November 3rd. The above map still holds true, though Colorado is a tie. Obama wins 290-248
Update, November 3rd. The Times’ FiveThirtyEight blog boldly predicts Virginia will go to Romney, something the RealClearPolitics average does not agree with. Obama breaking 300 EV would be almost a landslide. We’ll find out Tuesday.